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Madureira, Nuno Luis (2014). Waiting for the energy crisis: Europe and the United States on the eve of the first oil shock. Historical Social Research. 39 (4), 70-93
N. L. Fernandes, "Waiting for the energy crisis: Europe and the United States on the eve of the first oil shock", in Historical Social Research, vol. 39, no. 4, pp. 70-93, 2014
@article{fernandes2014_1714840020172, author = "Madureira, Nuno Luis", title = "Waiting for the energy crisis: Europe and the United States on the eve of the first oil shock", journal = "Historical Social Research", year = "2014", volume = "39", number = "4", doi = "10.12759/hsr.39.2014.4.70-93.", pages = "70-93", url = "http://www.gesis.org/en/hsr/current-issues/current-issues/394-energy-crises/" }
TY - JOUR TI - Waiting for the energy crisis: Europe and the United States on the eve of the first oil shock T2 - Historical Social Research VL - 39 IS - 4 AU - Madureira, Nuno Luis PY - 2014 SP - 70-93 SN - 0172-6404 DO - 10.12759/hsr.39.2014.4.70-93. UR - http://www.gesis.org/en/hsr/current-issues/current-issues/394-energy-crises/ AB - A global economic crisis is the most difficult kind of event to predict. This article asks a straightforward question: did anyone come close to anticipating the oil crisis of 1973/74, which represented a new type of historical sequence? Was the likelihood of an oil shock self-evident at the time? To answer this, I examine the degree of awareness in Europe and the United States of the three possible triggering factors: Egypt’s disposition to start a war and enlist the support of oil-producers; the Arab interest in oil conservation and long-term income maximization; and the imbalance in the oil market and the delayed adjustment of oil prices. For each of these topics, I set out both what was expected and what was actually in the offing; the information available to Western analysts and that unknown; the communication noises and the flagrant bias. The conclusion pays tribute to three men – James Akins, Pierre Wack, and Ted Newland – who had guessed what was coming ahead, and explains why their predictions almost succeeded, while others failed. ER -