The general aim of this research is to define a structural/conjunctural model to explain the debt of the 308 Portuguese municipalities. More specifically, the intention is to understand whether there is a relationship between the institutional, tax, budgetary and economic circumstances and municipalities’ debt. The period from 2004 to 2016 is studied using a structural equation methodology, which is believed to be a major contribution of this research. The results allow concluding that the institutional, tax and budgetary situations present a negative and statistically significant relationship with municipal debt. This means that, in the local government setting, when the institutional, tax and budgetary contexts are favourable, debt levels tend to be lower. Therefore, municipalities should take advantage of their institutional context and of periods of higher tax revenue, increased central government grants and investment expenditure, to reduce their debt levels, so they can face other circumstances pushing for debt increases.

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ocal debt,determinants,structural variables,Portugal