Health fluctuations render the outcome of any treatment switch uncertain, so that decision makers might have to wait for more information before optimally switching treatments. This paper sets up a stochastic model that provides an optimal rule for the timing of treatment switch. The results of the model were then tested empirically with patient-based data on first-line and second-line antiretroviral treatment in India. The empirical results support the findings of the analytical model.

--

Uncertainty; Utility Function; Health; Antiretroviral Treatment; Treatment Switch