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A NONLINEAR FACTOR ANALYSIS FOR LARGE SETS OF MACROECONOMIC TIME SERIES
Título Evento
JuliaCon2019
Ano (publicação definitiva)
2019
Língua
Inglês
País
Estados Unidos da América
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Abstract/Resumo
Dynamic factor models are frequently used for empirical research
in macroeconomics. Several papers in this area have argued
that the co-movements of large panels of macroeconomic and financial
data can be captured by a relatively few common unobserved
(latent) factors. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze
and compare the transmission mechanism of monetary policy
in the USA, by using a FAVAR model based on two different
approaches, in order to include information from large data
sets. The first approach consists of a classical linear methodology
where the factors are obtained through a principal component
analysis (PCA), while the second one employs a nonlinear factor
algorithm based on independent component analysis (ICA) and
on a Nonlinear PCA. In comparison to PCA, the factors extracted
by nonlinear methods provide a better performance in the Factor
Augmented VAR model, which can be illustrated by Impulse
Response Functions and forecasting. We perform the dynamic inference
on the model by using a dynamic bayesian estimation.
Agradecimentos/Acknowledgements
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