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Export Reference (APA) 
Mello-Sampayo, F. de. (2025). Uncertainty significantly influences healthcare policy decisions. Man and the Economy. 12 (2), 93-127
Export Reference (IEEE) 
F. D. Sampayo,  "Uncertainty significantly influences healthcare policy decisions", in Man and the Economy, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 93-127, 2025
Export BibTeX 
@article{sampayo2025_1769660491067,
	author = "Mello-Sampayo, F. de.",
	title = "Uncertainty significantly influences healthcare policy decisions",
	journal = "Man and the Economy",
	year = "2025",
	volume = "12",
	number = "2",
	doi = "10.1515/me-2024-0004",
	pages = "93-127",
	url = "https://www.degruyterbrill.com/journal/key/me/html"
}
Export RIS 
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Uncertainty significantly influences healthcare policy decisions
T2  - Man and the Economy
VL  - 12
IS  - 2
AU  - Mello-Sampayo, F. de.
PY  - 2025
SP  - 93-127
SN  - 2196-9639
DO  - 10.1515/me-2024-0004
UR  - https://www.degruyterbrill.com/journal/key/me/html
AB  - Uncertainty significantly influences healthcare policy decisions, especially regarding lockdown exits during pandemics. This study examines both epidemiological and economic and social uncertainties affecting stay-at-home and essential workers concerning COVID-19 exposure. Using an epidemiological real options model, we assess how these uncertainties impact the timing of lockdown exit decisions. The results indicate that a higher policy-change value lengthens the lockdown delay. A greater shock correlation between stay-at-home and mask-only populations reduces this value, leading to earlier lockdown exits. By conceptually incorporating economic and social pressures, such as income disruption, public fatigue, and policy irreversibility, the model provides a more realistic understanding of the trade-offs faced by decision-makers. These findings bridge the discrepancies between public health recommendations and policymakers’ actions. Integrating options theory enables more informed decision making by considering uncertain risks and outcomes.
ER  -