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Gasteiger, E. & Zhang, S. (2014). Anticipation, learning and welfare: the case of distortionary taxation. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 39, 113-126
E. M. Gasteiger and S. Zhang, "Anticipation, learning and welfare: the case of distortionary taxation", in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 39, pp. 113-126, 2014
@article{gasteiger2014_1724524989827, author = "Gasteiger, E. and Zhang, S.", title = "Anticipation, learning and welfare: the case of distortionary taxation", journal = "Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control", year = "2014", volume = "39", number = "", doi = "10.1016/j.jedc.2013.11.012", pages = "113-126", url = "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188913002364" }
TY - JOUR TI - Anticipation, learning and welfare: the case of distortionary taxation T2 - Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control VL - 39 AU - Gasteiger, E. AU - Zhang, S. PY - 2014 SP - 113-126 SN - 0165-1889 DO - 10.1016/j.jedc.2013.11.012 UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188913002364 AB - We study the impact of anticipated fiscal policy changes in a Ramsey economy where agents form long-horizon expectations using adaptive learning. We extend the existing framework by introducing distortionary taxes as well as elastic labor supply, which makes agents' decisions non-predetermined but more realistic. We detect that the dynamic responses to anticipated tax changes under learning have oscillatory behavior that can be interpreted as self-fulfilling waves of optimism and pessimism emerging from systematic forecast errors. Moreover, we demonstrate that these waves can have important implications for the welfare consequences of fiscal reforms ER -