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João Henrique Gonçalves Mazzeu, Ruiz, E. & Veiga, H. (2018). Uncertainty and density forecasts of arma models: comparison of asymptotic, bayesian, and bootstrap procedures. Journal of Economic Surveys. 32 (2), 388-419
J. H. Mazzeu et al., "Uncertainty and density forecasts of arma models: comparison of asymptotic, bayesian, and bootstrap procedures", in Journal of Economic Surveys, vol. 32, no. 2, pp. 388-419, 2018
@article{mazzeu2018_1714933300995, author = "João Henrique Gonçalves Mazzeu and Ruiz, E. and Veiga, H.", title = "Uncertainty and density forecasts of arma models: comparison of asymptotic, bayesian, and bootstrap procedures", journal = "Journal of Economic Surveys", year = "2018", volume = "32", number = "2", doi = "10.1111/joes.12197", pages = "388-419", url = "http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/joes.12197/abstract?systemMessage=Wiley+Online+Library+usage+report+download+page+will+be+unavailable+on+Friday+24th+November+2017+at+21%3A00+EST+%2F+02.00+GMT+%2F+10%3A00+SGT+%28Saturday+25th+Nov+for+SGT+" }
TY - JOUR TI - Uncertainty and density forecasts of arma models: comparison of asymptotic, bayesian, and bootstrap procedures T2 - Journal of Economic Surveys VL - 32 IS - 2 AU - João Henrique Gonçalves Mazzeu AU - Ruiz, E. AU - Veiga, H. PY - 2018 SP - 388-419 SN - 0950-0804 DO - 10.1111/joes.12197 UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/joes.12197/abstract?systemMessage=Wiley+Online+Library+usage+report+download+page+will+be+unavailable+on+Friday+24th+November+2017+at+21%3A00+EST+%2F+02.00+GMT+%2F+10%3A00+SGT+%28Saturday+25th+Nov+for+SGT+ AB - The objective of this paper is to analyze the effects of uncertainty on density forecasts of stationary linear univariate ARMA models. We consider three specific sources of uncertainty: parameter estimation, error distribution, and lag order. Depending on the estimation sample size and the forecast horizon, each of these sources may have different effects. We consider asymptotic, Bayesian, and bootstrap procedures proposed to deal with uncertainty and compare their finite sample properties. The results are illustrated constructing fan charts for UK inflation. ER -