Exportar Publicação

Bento, N., Wilson, C. & Anadon, L.A. (2017). Conceptualizing the Temporal and the Spatial Dynamics of Formative Phases. 8th International Sustainability Transitions Conference.

N. M. Bento et al.,  "Conceptualizing the Temporal and the Spatial Dynamics of Formative Phases", in 8th Int. Sustainability Transitions Conf., Gothenburg, 2017

@misc{bento2017_1766633702907,
	author = "Bento, N. and Wilson, C. and Anadon, L.A.",
	title = "Conceptualizing the Temporal and the Spatial Dynamics of Formative Phases",
	year = "2017",
	url = "http://ist2017.org/"
}

TY  - CPAPER
TI  - Conceptualizing the Temporal and the Spatial Dynamics of Formative Phases
T2  - 8th International Sustainability Transitions Conference
AU  - Bento, N.
AU  - Wilson, C.
AU  - Anadon, L.A.
PY  - 2017
CY  - Gothenburg
UR  - http://ist2017.org/
AB  - Implementing the Paris agreement to prevent climate change requires energy system transformation and the widespread diffusion of low-carbon energy technologies. Evidence on the historical diffusion of energy technologies shows long periods of emergence of new energy systems (Fouquet, 2016; Grubler et al., 2016). Energy technologies often took several decades in the early phase of technology life-cycle (Fouquet, 2014; Smil, 2010). This period is known as the formative phase during which the conditions (standardization, performance improvement, etc.) are created for a new technology to emerge and prepare for large-scale commercialization (Jacobsson & Lauber, 2006, Arthur, 2009). At the end of the formative phase the technology eventually becomes ready to leave the initial markets and to reach new regions, gradually becoming globalized (Grubler, 2012; Markard 2016). Hence, the understanding of the dynamics that shape the formative period and its duration is important in the debate on how to accelerate energy innovations (Winskel & Radcliffe, 2014; Henderson & Newell, 2011). This is particularly true in the case of the diffusion of technologies in developing countries which are traditionally follower adopters but give signs of accelerating the rate of adoption of new renewable energy technologies (Schmidt & Huenteler, 2016; Surana & Anadón, 2015). 
This paper aims to improve our understanding of two important aspects of innovation and technological change in energy technologies, i.e.: i) the duration of the formative phase and its determinants; and ii) the spatial dynamics of the formative phase.
Different strands of the literature cover the dynamics and determinants of the formative. These include technology life-cycle (Huenteler et al., 2016; Taylor & Taylor, 2012), strategic management (Peltoniemi, 2011) and socio-technical transitions (Bergek et al., 2015; Markard et al., 2012; Geels, 2005). The determinants of the duration of technology diffusion have already been significantly explored.  Research shows that the duration of diffusion depends on factors related to the characteristics of the technology and characteristics of the adoption environment, as explained in the diffusion of innovations literature (Rogers, 2003). These factors include: relative advantage, compatibility, complexity (Arthur, 2009); disruptiveness, inter-relatedness and infrastructural needs (Grubler et al., 1999); and market size (Wilson et al., 2012). We hypothesize that at least some of these factors will influence the formative phase as well. A question of particular interest would be to determine whether, or the extent to which, particular determinants of diffusion affect the formative phase. 
The dynamics of spatial diffusion are typically the object of disciplines such as economic geography (e.g. Comin et al., 2012; Griffith e al., 2013), but are only more recently investigated in innovation systems, particularly technological innovation systems (TIS) (Hansen & Coenen, 2015; Coenen & Truffer, 2012). This literature recognizes that the context and space influences the formation and growth of new innovation systems (Bergek et al., 2015). Therefore it is important to understand whether and how the formative phase evolves across countries.  
The paper aims to answer the question: what drives the formative phase duration of energy innovations? This research develops a conceptual framework of the formative phase and then undertakes a systematic quantitative analysis of the factors that accelerate innovations in the early stage of commercialization. The conceptual framework is tested in a set of 15 energy technologies including both new and old, energy supply and end-use, using a hazard model to understand the effect of these factors to speed up the end the formative phase. We also compare the dynamics of formation in different regions defined by the timing of adoption.
The results of this research are relevant for technology and innovation studies in several ways. First, understanding the determinants of the formative phase contributes to inform policy-makers about the more cost-effective policies to stimulate the development of low-carbon energy technologies. They could target the determinants that accelerate experimentation in the formative phase and, thus, lowering costs. Second, understanding the differences in the formative phase and timing between first movers and second movers offers valuable lessons about the potential and limits for accelerating the widespread diffusion of innovations. This has implications for policy makers in developing countries, investors who are interested in what it takes to set up a viable industry in other countries, as well as international development practitioners. Third, the study of the spatial dynamics of energy technologies has implications for modelers. The revealed determinants could help better predict how different policies will affect the formative phase, namely through the parameterization of integrated assessment models. Finally, this research contributes to provide more historical basis to systemic conceptualizations of technology change (e.g. TIS theories), and thus improve their explanatory power to analyze spatial and long-term transitions.

ER  -