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Di Serio, M., Fragetta, M. & Gasteiger, E. (2020). The government spending multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: evidence from the United States. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 82 (6), 1262-1294
M. D. Serio et al., "The government spending multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: evidence from the United States", in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 82, no. 6, pp. 1262-1294, 2020
@article{serio2020_1732396506454, author = "Di Serio, M. and Fragetta, M. and Gasteiger, E.", title = "The government spending multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: evidence from the United States", journal = "Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics", year = "2020", volume = "82", number = "6", doi = "10.1111/obes.12382", pages = "1262-1294", url = "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/14680084" }
TY - JOUR TI - The government spending multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: evidence from the United States T2 - Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics VL - 82 IS - 6 AU - Di Serio, M. AU - Fragetta, M. AU - Gasteiger, E. PY - 2020 SP - 1262-1294 SN - 0305-9049 DO - 10.1111/obes.12382 UR - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/14680084 AB - We estimate state-dependent government spending multipliers for the United States. We use a factor-augmented interacted vector autoregression (FAIVAR) model. This allows us to capture the time-varying monetary policy characteristics including the recent zero interest rate lower bound (ZLB) state, to account for the state of the business cycle and to address the limited information problem typically inherent in VARs. We identify government spending shocks by sign restrictions and use a government spending growth forecast series to account for the effects of anticipated fiscal policy. In our baseline specification, we find that government spending multipliers in a recession range from 3.56 to 3.79 at the ZLB. Away from the ZLB, multipliers in recessions range from 2.31 to 3.05. Several robustness analyses confirm that multipliers are higher, when the interest rate is lower and that multipliers in recessions exceed multipliers in expansions. Our results are consistent with theories that predict larger multipliers at the ZLB. ER -