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Igor Grossmann, Amanda Rotella, Cendri A. Hutcherson, Konstantyn Sharpinskyi, Michael E. W. Varnum, Sebastian Achter...Tom Wilkening (2023). Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change. Nature Human Behaviour. 7 (4), 484-501

I. Grossmann et al.,  "Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change", in Nature Human Behaviour, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 484-501, 2023

@article{grossmann2023_1734635199082,
	author = "Igor Grossmann and Amanda Rotella and Cendri A. Hutcherson and Konstantyn Sharpinskyi and Michael E. W. Varnum and Sebastian Achter and Mandeep K. Dhami and Xinqi Evie Guo and Mane Kara-Yakoubian and David R. Mandel and Louis Raes and Louis Tay and Aymeric Vie and Lisa Wagner and Matúš Adamkovič and Arash Arami and Arriaga, P. and Kasun Bandara and Gabriel Banik and František Bartoš and Ernest Baskin and Christoph Bergmeir and Michał Białek and Caroline K. Børsting and Dillon T. Browne and Eugene M. Caruso and Rong Chen and Bin-Tzong Chie and William J. Chopik and Robert N. Collins and Chin Wen Cong and Lucian G. Conway and Matthew Davis and Martin V. Day and Nathan A. Dhaliwal and Justin D. Durham and Martyna Dziekan and Christian T. Elbaek and Eric Shuman and Marharyta Fabrykant and Mustafa Firat and Geoffrey T. Fong and Jeremy A. Frimer and Jonathan M. Gallegos and Simon B. Goldberg and Anton Gollwitzer and Julia Goyal and Lorenz Graf-Vlachy and Scott D. Gronlund and Sebastian Hafenbrädl and Andree Hartanto and Matthew J. Hirshberg and Matthew J. Hornsey and Piers D. L. Howe and Anoosha Izadi and Bastian Jaeger and Pavol Kačmár and Yeun Joon Kim and Ruslan Krenzler and Daniel G. Lannin and Hung-Wen Lin and Nigel Mantou Lou and Verity Y. Q. Lua and Aaron W. Lukaszewski and Albert L. Ly and Christopher R. Madan and Maximilian Maier and Nadyanna M. Majeed and David S. March and Abigail A. Marsh and Michal Misiak and Kristian Ove R. Myrseth and Jaime M. Napan and Jonathan Nicholas and Konstantinos Nikolopoulos and Jiaqing O and Tobias Otterbring and Mariola Paruzel-Czachura and Shiva Pauer and John Protzko and Quentin Raffaelli and Ivan Ropovik and Robert M. Ross and Yefim Roth and Espen Røysamb and Landon Schnabel and Astrid Schütz and Matthias Seifert and A. T. Sevincer and Garrick T. Sherman and Otto Simonsson and Ming-Chien Sung and Chung-Ching Tai and Thomas Talhelm and Bethany A. Teachman and Philip E. Tetlock and Dimitrios Thomakos and Dwight C. K. Tse and Oliver J. Twardus and Joshua M. Tybur and Lyle Ungar and Daan Vandermeulen and Leighton Vaughan Williams and Hrag A. Vosgerichian and Qi Wang and Ke Wang and Mark E. Whiting and Conny E. Wollbrant and Tao Yang and Kumar Yogeeswaran and Sangsuk Yoon and Ventura R. Alves and Jessica R. Andrews-Hanna and Paul A. Bloom and Anthony Boyles and Loo Charis and Mingyeong Choi and Sean Darling-Hammond and Z. E. Ferguson and Cheryl R. Kaiser and Simon T. Karg and Alberto López Ortega and Lori Mahoney and Melvin S. Marsh and Marcellin F. R. C. Martinie and Eli K. Michaels and Philip Millroth and Jeanean B. Naqvi and Weiting Ng and Robb B. Rutledge and Peter Slattery and Adam H. Smiley and Oliver Strijbis and Daniel Sznycer and Eli Tsukayama and Austin van Loon and Jan G. Voelkel and Margaux N. A. Wienk and Tom Wilkening",
	title = "Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change",
	journal = "Nature Human Behaviour",
	year = "2023",
	volume = "7",
	number = "4",
	doi = "10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1",
	pages = "484-501",
	url = "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01517-1"
}

TY  - JOUR
TI  - Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change
T2  - Nature Human Behaviour
VL  - 7
IS  - 4
AU  - Igor Grossmann
AU  - Amanda Rotella
AU  - Cendri A. Hutcherson
AU  - Konstantyn Sharpinskyi
AU  - Michael E. W. Varnum
AU  - Sebastian Achter
AU  - Mandeep K. Dhami
AU  - Xinqi Evie Guo
AU  - Mane Kara-Yakoubian
AU  - David R. Mandel
AU  - Louis Raes
AU  - Louis Tay
AU  - Aymeric Vie
AU  - Lisa Wagner
AU  - Matúš Adamkovič
AU  - Arash Arami
AU  - Arriaga, P.
AU  - Kasun Bandara
AU  - Gabriel Banik
AU  - František Bartoš
AU  - Ernest Baskin
AU  - Christoph Bergmeir
AU  - Michał Białek
AU  - Caroline K. Børsting
AU  - Dillon T. Browne
AU  - Eugene M. Caruso
AU  - Rong Chen
AU  - Bin-Tzong Chie
AU  - William J. Chopik
AU  - Robert N. Collins
AU  - Chin Wen Cong
AU  - Lucian G. Conway
AU  - Matthew Davis
AU  - Martin V. Day
AU  - Nathan A. Dhaliwal
AU  - Justin D. Durham
AU  - Martyna Dziekan
AU  - Christian T. Elbaek
AU  - Eric Shuman
AU  - Marharyta Fabrykant
AU  - Mustafa Firat
AU  - Geoffrey T. Fong
AU  - Jeremy A. Frimer
AU  - Jonathan M. Gallegos
AU  - Simon B. Goldberg
AU  - Anton Gollwitzer
AU  - Julia Goyal
AU  - Lorenz Graf-Vlachy
AU  - Scott D. Gronlund
AU  - Sebastian Hafenbrädl
AU  - Andree Hartanto
AU  - Matthew J. Hirshberg
AU  - Matthew J. Hornsey
AU  - Piers D. L. Howe
AU  - Anoosha Izadi
AU  - Bastian Jaeger
AU  - Pavol Kačmár
AU  - Yeun Joon Kim
AU  - Ruslan Krenzler
AU  - Daniel G. Lannin
AU  - Hung-Wen Lin
AU  - Nigel Mantou Lou
AU  - Verity Y. Q. Lua
AU  - Aaron W. Lukaszewski
AU  - Albert L. Ly
AU  - Christopher R. Madan
AU  - Maximilian Maier
AU  - Nadyanna M. Majeed
AU  - David S. March
AU  - Abigail A. Marsh
AU  - Michal Misiak
AU  - Kristian Ove R. Myrseth
AU  - Jaime M. Napan
AU  - Jonathan Nicholas
AU  - Konstantinos Nikolopoulos
AU  - Jiaqing O
AU  - Tobias Otterbring
AU  - Mariola Paruzel-Czachura
AU  - Shiva Pauer
AU  - John Protzko
AU  - Quentin Raffaelli
AU  - Ivan Ropovik
AU  - Robert M. Ross
AU  - Yefim Roth
AU  - Espen Røysamb
AU  - Landon Schnabel
AU  - Astrid Schütz
AU  - Matthias Seifert
AU  - A. T. Sevincer
AU  - Garrick T. Sherman
AU  - Otto Simonsson
AU  - Ming-Chien Sung
AU  - Chung-Ching Tai
AU  - Thomas Talhelm
AU  - Bethany A. Teachman
AU  - Philip E. Tetlock
AU  - Dimitrios Thomakos
AU  - Dwight C. K. Tse
AU  - Oliver J. Twardus
AU  - Joshua M. Tybur
AU  - Lyle Ungar
AU  - Daan Vandermeulen
AU  - Leighton Vaughan Williams
AU  - Hrag A. Vosgerichian
AU  - Qi Wang
AU  - Ke Wang
AU  - Mark E. Whiting
AU  - Conny E. Wollbrant
AU  - Tao Yang
AU  - Kumar Yogeeswaran
AU  - Sangsuk Yoon
AU  - Ventura R. Alves
AU  - Jessica R. Andrews-Hanna
AU  - Paul A. Bloom
AU  - Anthony Boyles
AU  - Loo Charis
AU  - Mingyeong Choi
AU  - Sean Darling-Hammond
AU  - Z. E. Ferguson
AU  - Cheryl R. Kaiser
AU  - Simon T. Karg
AU  - Alberto López Ortega
AU  - Lori Mahoney
AU  - Melvin S. Marsh
AU  - Marcellin F. R. C. Martinie
AU  - Eli K. Michaels
AU  - Philip Millroth
AU  - Jeanean B. Naqvi
AU  - Weiting Ng
AU  - Robb B. Rutledge
AU  - Peter Slattery
AU  - Adam H. Smiley
AU  - Oliver Strijbis
AU  - Daniel Sznycer
AU  - Eli Tsukayama
AU  - Austin van Loon
AU  - Jan G. Voelkel
AU  - Margaux N. A. Wienk
AU  - Tom Wilkening
PY  - 2023
SP  - 484-501
SN  - 2397-3374
DO  - 10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1
UR  - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01517-1
AB  - How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender–career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists’ forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data.
ER  -