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Santana Pereira, J., Nina, Susana Rogeiro & Hugo Lopes (2023). Exposure to Polls and Subjective Perception of Poll Results as Predictors of Strategic Voting and Mobilization: The Case of Portugal, 2022. 27th IPSA World Congress of Political Science.

J. A. Santucci et al.,  "Exposure to Polls and Subjective Perception of Poll Results as Predictors of Strategic Voting and Mobilization: The Case of Portugal, 2022", in 27th IPSA World Congr. of Political Science, Buenos Aires, 2023

@misc{santucci2023_1715324078563,
	author = "Santana Pereira, J. and Nina, Susana Rogeiro and Hugo Lopes",
	title = "Exposure to Polls and Subjective Perception of Poll Results as Predictors of Strategic Voting and Mobilization: The Case of Portugal, 2022",
	year = "2023",
	url = "https://wc2023.ipsa.org/wc/home"
}

TY  - CPAPER
TI  - Exposure to Polls and Subjective Perception of Poll Results as Predictors of Strategic Voting and Mobilization: The Case of Portugal, 2022
T2  - 27th IPSA World Congress of Political Science
AU  - Santana Pereira, J.
AU  - Nina, Susana Rogeiro
AU  - Hugo Lopes
PY  - 2023
CY  - Buenos Aires
UR  - https://wc2023.ipsa.org/wc/home
AB  - Research on the effects of exposure to pre-electoral polls has shown that it can have mobilization effects (leading voters to the polls to increase the likelihood of a given election result; Lau and Redlawsk, 2001; Sniderman et al., 1991) and boost strategic voting (a shift from supporting the preferred party or candidate towards a different voting decision with the same purpose; McAllister and Studlar, 1991). However, much of this literature assumes that voters have identical levels of exposure to polls and perfect information about what they say about the competition between the main parties or candidates – an assumption often based on the impossibility of measuring these variables. To shed light on the role of these factors, we use the 2022 Portuguese Election Study, which includes original data that allow us to test the extent to which variations in terms of attention to polls and perception of their content are associated with different patterns of mobilization and sincere vs. strategic voting. Our results indeed show that the perception that polls said the two main parties were tied led to greater mobilization (i.e. people who did not vote in 2019 turned out to vote in 2022), whereas for center and left-wing citizens the odds of voting for the incumbent PS in spite of feeling closer to other party (strategic voting) was stronger for those who believed polls said the main opposition party, center-right PSD, was ahead. With this article, we therefore do not only contribute to knowledge about the mechanisms underlying the impact of exposure to polls on voting behavior, but also shed light on the role of polls on voting behavior in the 2022 legislative elections, which was the subject of debate in the public sphere due to the difference between the poll estimates and the election results of the two main parties and the fact that, in spite of the severe pandemic context, participation increased when compared to 2019.
ER  -