Publication in conference proceedings
Does economic policy uncertainty impact inflation?
Paula Moldovan (Moldovan, P.); Sérgio Lagoa (Lagoa, S.); Diana Mendes (Mendes, D.);
MIRDEC 18th International Academic Conference Economics, Business and Contemporary Discussions in Social Science: Conference Proceedings
Year (definitive publication)
2022
Language
English
Country
Portugal
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Abstract
Using the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index of Baker et al. (2016), we examine its impact on inflation rate in the UK over the period from 1998 to 2020. We adopt a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and generate impulse response functions. To ensure that the identified shocks will be uncorrelated, based on economic theoretical considerations, we employed Cholesky restrictions. The results show that a positive innovation in EPU index leads to a weakening of the real exchange rate and unemployment rate and at the same time a rise in inflation rate. The broad implication of the present research is that under economic policy uncertainty shocks, inflation and unemployment rate respond in accordance with the effects described by the economic theory and the Phillips curve, which emphasizes that there is a trade-off between inflation and unemployment.
Acknowledgements
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Keywords
Economic policy uncertainty index,Inflation rate,Real exchange rate