Existing research on populist attitudes shows that these attitudes are highly prevalent in Western democracies, particularly but not exclusively in Southern Europe. However, populist attitudes do not consistently or fully translate into electoral support for populist parties, which typically receive a vote share that is substantially lower than the proportion of citizens holding populist attitudes. While the literature has identified several factors shaping the activation of populist attitudes and their translation into political behavior, we argue that emotions toward populist leaders are crucial for explaining this discrepancy. More specifically, we advance the hypothesis that populist attitudes translate into support for populist parties only in the absence of negative emotions toward their leaders and in the presence of positive emotions directed at them. We test this hypothesis using an original dataset collected in Portugal in April and May 2024, which includes measures of populist attitudes, voting for the radical right party Chega, emotional responses to Chega’s leader including frustration, resentment, fear, disappointment, hatred, hope, and pride, and a range of relevant control variables. Portugal is a particularly suitable case for examining the moderating role of emotions elicited by populist leaders due to the pronounced gap between the prevalence of populist attitudes and Chega’s electoral performance, as well as the distinctive leadership and communication style of the party’s founder and leader compared to other parties with parliamentary representation. By shedding light on the role of emotions in the translation of populist attitudes into populist voting behavior, this study contributes to ongoing debates on populist success in established democracies, highlighting how leadership style and, crucially, the emotions it generates matter beyond the mere endorsement of a thin-centered populist ideology.

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