New personalized mobility services such as ride-hailing have arisen in the urban mobility context and offer new market competitive solutions. Airport accessibility is also affected by the new ride-hailing services resulting into new modal splits. To better understand the aspects that affect the airport access mode choice in the presence of ride-hailing, an ad-hoc survey is conducted and mode choice models for the case study of Lisbon airport are developed. It is found that the travel cost, spatial aspects, the mobility behaviour of the passengers in the urban context and their personal traits significantly impact their choices. Moreover, a multivariate scenario analysis is implemented to explore the impact of four key future drivers: changes in the ride-hailing cost structure, the share of business passengers, the evolution of demographics in the region, and the share of ride-hailing frequent users. This analysis highlights that the share of ride-hailing is expected to settle around 14% to 36% and provides a viable means to explore the evolution of ride-hailing use at the airport context. Ultimately, this study provides new insights into airport access mode choice upfront the entry of this innovative mobility service, thus supporting both policymakers and airport managers toward anticipating modal shifts and make informed strategic planning decisions.

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Airport access mode,Ride-hailing services,Lisbon airport,Passenger mode choice

• Ciências da Terra e do Ambiente - Ciências Naturais
• Engenharia Civil - Engenharia e Tecnologia
• Economia e Gestão - Ciências Sociais
• Direito - Ciências Sociais