Talk
Volatility and Risk Estimation with Nonlinear Methods
Diana Mendes (Mendes, D. A.); Vivaldo Mendes (Mendes, V.);
Event Title
3rd International Conference on Dynamics, Games and Science
Year (definitive publication)
2014
Language
English
Country
Portugal
More Information
Abstract
We model and estimate the conditional variance (volatility), in order to calculate VaR by means of the heteroskedastic models GARCH(1,1), RiskMetrics, EGARCH(1,1) and GJR-GARCH(1,1), both under Gaussian and t-Student conditional distributions. Existence of structural breaks has been tested by using the Bai Perron (2009) test. Structural breaks in financial series concur to leptokurtic distributions of the returns, and also explain the increase of persistence in the volatility models. In order to evaluate the performance of the various methods to calculate Value-at-Risk, backtesting procedures are applied
Acknowledgements
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Keywords
Time series, GARCH, VaR