Ciência-IUL
Publicações
Descrição Detalhada da Publicação
Título Revista
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Ano (publicação definitiva)
N/A
Língua
Inglês
País
Estados Unidos da América
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Abstract/Resumo
We estimate government spending multipliers in demand- and supply-driven recessions for the Euro Area. Multipliers in a moderately demand-driven recession are two to three times larger than in a moderately supply-driven recession, with the difference between multipliers being non-zero with very high probability. More generally, multipliers are inversely correlated with the deviation of inflation from its trend, implying that the more demand-driven a recession, the higher the multiplier. Multipliers range from 0.5 in supply-driven recessions to about 2 in demand-driven recessions. The econometric approach leverages a factor-augmented interacted vector-autoregression model purified of expectations (FAIPVAR-X). The model captures the time-varying state of the business-cycle including strongly and moderately demand- and supply-driven recessions, by taking the whole distribution of inflation deviations from trend into account.
Agradecimentos/Acknowledgements
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Palavras-chave
Fiscal multiplier,Business cycle,Interacted panel VAR,Factor models,Euro area
Classificação Fields of Science and Technology
- Matemáticas - Ciências Naturais
- Economia e Gestão - Ciências Sociais
- Sociologia - Ciências Sociais
Registos de financiamentos
Referência de financiamento | Entidade Financiadora |
---|---|
18611 | Austrian National Bank (OeNB) |
UIDB/00315/2020 | Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia |