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Dias, J. C. & Shackleton, M. B. (2011). Hysteresis effects under CIR interest rates. European Journal of Operational Research. 211 (3), 594-600
J. C. Dias and M. B. Shackleton, "Hysteresis effects under CIR interest rates", in European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 211, no. 3, pp. 594-600, 2011
@article{dias2011_1732200585248, author = "Dias, J. C. and Shackleton, M. B.", title = "Hysteresis effects under CIR interest rates", journal = "European Journal of Operational Research", year = "2011", volume = "211", number = "3", doi = "10.1016/j.ejor.2010.12.021", pages = "594-600", url = "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221711000026" }
TY - JOUR TI - Hysteresis effects under CIR interest rates T2 - European Journal of Operational Research VL - 211 IS - 3 AU - Dias, J. C. AU - Shackleton, M. B. PY - 2011 SP - 594-600 SN - 0377-2217 DO - 10.1016/j.ejor.2010.12.021 UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221711000026 AB - Most decision making research in real options focuses on revenue uncertainty assuming discount rates remain constant. However, for many decisions revenue or cost streams are relatively static and investment is driven by interest rate uncertainty, for example the decision to invest in durable machinery and equipment. Using interest rate models from Cox et al. (1985b), we generalize the work of Ingersoll and Ross (1992) in two ways. Firstly, we include real options on perpetuities (in addition to zero coupon cash flows). Secondly, we incorporate abandonment or disinvestment as well as investment options, and thus model interest rate hysteresis (parallel to revenue uncertainty in Dixit (1989a)). Under stochastic interest rates, economic hysteresis is found to be significant, even for small sunk costs. ER -