"Securing the Flow: Critical Raw Materials and Offshore Wind Security in the Black Sea" Roxana Andrei The Black Sea region is poised to become a key contributor to Europe’s renewable energy transition, with Romania at the forefront. The World Bank estimates that Romania could develop between 3 GW and 7 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2035, potentially attracting up to €19 billion in investment and generating approximately 77,000 jobs1. This ambition is reinforced by initiatives such as the 3 GW offshore wind farm proposed by Black Sea Oil & Gas2. However, the development of offshore wind infrastructure in this region faces profound security challenges. A critical issue is the secure supply of raw materials - particularly rare earth elements like neodymium and dysprosium - which are essential for high-efficiency wind turbine magnets, in addition to steel and copper. China currently dominates this supply chain, controlling roughly 70% of global rare earth extraction and 90% of neodymium magnet production3. Such market concentration raises the risk of economic coercion and supply chain manipulation, especially during geopolitical crises. Moreover, the Black Sea has emerged as a strategic hotspot, marked by increasing naval militarization and hybrid threats. NATO has recently warned of growing risks to undersea infrastructure—including energy cables and pipelines—from state and non-state actors4. These dynamics significantly elevate the vulnerability of future offshore wind farms. In addition, the ongoing naval warfare operations in the Black Sea, in the context of the war in Ukraine, the need for coordinated co-existence between defence operations and renewable energy infrastructure will be essential to ensure both national security and energy resilience. The presentation will explore how stakeholders can mitigate these intersecting risks by fostering resilient supply chains, securing maritime infrastructure, and navigating the geopolitical volatility shaping the Black Sea’s offshore wind prospects. 1 World Bank, Offshore Wind Roadmap for Romania, as reported by Energynomics.ro (2023): https://www.energynomics.ro/en/offshore-wind-world-bank-report-shows-a-potential-of-3-7gw-installed-by-2035-in-the-black-sea 2 OffshoreWind.biz, “Romanian Oil & Gas Company Plans to Build 3 GW of Offshore Wind in Black Sea” (2024): https://www.offshorewind.biz/2024/05/08/romanian-oil-gas-company-plans-to-build-3-gw-of-offshore-wind-in-black-sea 3 The Guardian, “UK Must Become Less Dependent on China for Critical Minerals” (2024): https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/dec/24/uk-less-dependent-china-critical-minerals-thinktank 4 The Guardian, “Undersea Hybrid Warfare Threatens Security of £1bn Infrastructure, NATO Commander Warns” (2024): https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/16/undersea-hybrid-warfare-threatens-security-of-1bn-nato-commander-warns

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Energy security,Hybrid warfare,Geopolitics,Black Sea

• Political Science - Social Sciences