Research on the fulfilment of electoral promises has been particularly fruitful over the past decades. Most of it focused on examining pledge fulfilment at the cabinet level, and little emphasis was placed on the reasons underlying the level of compliance. As a consequence, core factors in explaining pledge fulfilment have not yet been explored. One such factor might be instability in a government’s internal functioning. We argue that ministerial instability is relevant for explaining a government’s broken promises, and that its importance increases at the junior minister level and among the most salient ministries. Relying on data on the fulfilment of electoral promises and ministerial instability in Portugal between 1995 and 2019, backed by interviews with former ministers and junior ministers, we provide evidence that the fulfilment of electoral promises is significantly influenced by portfolio volatility, particularly at the junior ministerial level and in the most important ministries.

The research reported in the article has benefited from funding from the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT, Grant nº.PTDC/IVC-CPO/3921/2012). The revision of this text was as well supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia

Government policymaking,Ministerial instability,Ministry salience,Party pledges,Portugal

• Political Science - Social Sciences

This publication is an output of the following project(s):

• Candidates Survey (MPs and non-elected candidates) for the 2019 Legislative Elections
• Candidates Survey (MPs and non-elected candidates) for the 2022 Legislative Elections
• Public Preferences and Policy Decision-Making. A Longitudinal and Comparative Analysis