Artigo em revista científica Q2
A time-varying approach of the us welfare cost of inflation
Stephen Miller (Miller, S. M.); Luís Martins (Martins, L. F.); Rangan Gupta (Gupta, R.);
Título Revista
Macroeconomic Dynamics
Ano (publicação definitiva)
2019
Língua
Inglês
País
Estados Unidos da América
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Abstract/Resumo
Money-demand specifications exhibit instability, especially for long spans of data. This paper reconsiders the welfare cost of inflation for the US economy using a flexible time-varying (TV) cointegration methodology to estimate the money-demand function. We find evidence that the TV cointegration estimation provides a better fit of the actual data than a time-invariant estimation and that the throughout unitary income elasticity only exists for the log–log form over the entire sample period. Our estimate of the welfare cost of inflation for a 10% inflation rate lies in the range of 0.025–0.75% of gross domestic product (GDP) and averages 0.27%. In sum, our findings fall well within the ranges of existing studies of the welfare cost of inflation. We find that the welfare cost averages 7.4% higher during expansions than recessions for 10% inflation rate. Finally, the interest elasticity of money demand shows substantial variability over our sample period.
Agradecimentos/Acknowledgements
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Palavras-chave
Money-Demand Function,Welfare Cost of Inflation,Time-Varying Cointegration
  • Economia e Gestão - Ciências Sociais