Artigo em revista científica Q1
Economic voting in Portugal, 2002–2009
André Freire (Freire, A.); José Santana Pereira (Santana-Pereira, J.);
Título Revista
Electoral Studies
Ano
2012
Língua
Inglês
País
Reino Unido
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Abstract/Resumo
This article tests the economic voting hypothesis in Portugal during the three most recent first-order elections (2002, 2005, 2009), trying to make sense of the multiplicity of choices in the Portuguese party system. We observed that positive sociotropic perceptions increase the probability to vote for the incumbent, even when we control for long-term factors of vote choice; egotropic effects are weaker. Negative economic perceptions not only lead to a higher probability to vote for the major opposition party, but, in some cases, increase the probabilities to vote for small parties or to refrain from voting. Sociotropic effects are actually quite constant in this timeframe, but their strength to explain the vote is lower than that of ideology and (before 2009) religiosity.
Agradecimentos/Acknowledgements
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Palavras-chave
Economic voting,Elections,Portugal,Sociotropic perceptions,Multiparty systems
  • Ciências Políticas - Ciências Sociais