Scientific journal paper Q1
Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change
Igor Grossmann (Igor Grossmann); Amanda Rotella (Amanda Rotella); Cendri A. Hutcherson (Cendri A. Hutcherson); Konstantyn Sharpinskyi (Konstantyn Sharpinskyi); Michael E. W. Varnum (Michael E. W. Varnum); Sebastian Achter (Sebastian Achter); Mandeep K. Dhami (Mandeep K. Dhami); Xinqi Evie Guo (Xinqi Evie Guo); Mane Kara-Yakoubian (Mane Kara-Yakoubian); David R. Mandel (David R. Mandel); Louis Raes (Louis Raes); Louis Tay (Louis Tay); Aymeric Vie (Aymeric Vie); Lisa Wagner (Lisa Wagner); Matúš Adamkovič (Matúš Adamkovič); Arash Arami (Arash Arami); Patrícia Arriaga (Arriaga, P.); Kasun Bandara (Kasun Bandara); Gabriel Banik (Gabriel Banik); František Bartoš (František Bartoš); Ernest Baskin (Ernest Baskin); Christoph Bergmeir (Christoph Bergmeir); Michał Białek (Michał Białek); Caroline K. Børsting (Caroline K. Børsting); Dillon T. Browne (Dillon T. Browne); Eugene M. Caruso (Eugene M. Caruso); Rong Chen (Rong Chen); Bin-Tzong Chie (Bin-Tzong Chie); William J. Chopik (William J. Chopik); Robert N. Collins (Robert N. Collins); Chin Wen Cong (Chin Wen Cong); Lucian G. Conway (Lucian G. Conway); Matthew Davis (Matthew Davis); Martin V. Day (Martin V. Day); Nathan A. Dhaliwal (Nathan A. Dhaliwal); Justin D. Durham (Justin D. Durham); Martyna Dziekan (Martyna Dziekan); Christian T. Elbaek (Christian T. Elbaek); Eric Shuman (Eric Shuman); Marharyta Fabrykant (Marharyta Fabrykant); Mustafa Firat (Mustafa Firat); Geoffrey T. Fong (Geoffrey T. Fong); Jeremy A. Frimer (Jeremy A. Frimer); Jonathan M. Gallegos (Jonathan M. Gallegos); Simon B. Goldberg (Simon B. Goldberg); Anton Gollwitzer (Anton Gollwitzer); Julia Goyal (Julia Goyal); Lorenz Graf-Vlachy (Lorenz Graf-Vlachy); Scott D. Gronlund (Scott D. Gronlund); Sebastian Hafenbrädl (Sebastian Hafenbrädl); Andree Hartanto (Andree Hartanto); Matthew J. Hirshberg (Matthew J. Hirshberg); Matthew J. Hornsey (Matthew J. Hornsey); Piers D. L. Howe (Piers D. L. Howe); Anoosha Izadi (Anoosha Izadi); Bastian Jaeger (Bastian Jaeger); Pavol Kačmár (Pavol Kačmár); Yeun Joon Kim (Yeun Joon Kim); Ruslan Krenzler (Ruslan Krenzler); Daniel G. Lannin (Daniel G. Lannin); Hung-Wen Lin (Hung-Wen Lin); Nigel Mantou Lou (Nigel Mantou Lou); Verity Y. Q. Lua (Verity Y. Q. Lua); Aaron W. Lukaszewski (Aaron W. Lukaszewski); Albert L. Ly (Albert L. Ly); Christopher R. Madan (Christopher R. Madan); Maximilian Maier (Maximilian Maier); Nadyanna M. Majeed (Nadyanna M. Majeed); David S. March (David S. March); Abigail A. Marsh (Abigail A. Marsh); Michal Misiak (Michal Misiak); Kristian Ove R. Myrseth (Kristian Ove R. Myrseth); Jaime M. Napan (Jaime M. Napan); Jonathan Nicholas (Jonathan Nicholas); Konstantinos Nikolopoulos (Konstantinos Nikolopoulos); Jiaqing O (Jiaqing O); Tobias Otterbring (Tobias Otterbring); Mariola Paruzel-Czachura (Mariola Paruzel-Czachura); Shiva Pauer (Shiva Pauer); John Protzko (John Protzko); Quentin Raffaelli (Quentin Raffaelli); Ivan Ropovik (Ivan Ropovik); Robert M. Ross (Robert M. Ross); Yefim Roth (Yefim Roth); Espen Røysamb (Espen Røysamb); Landon Schnabel (Landon Schnabel); Astrid Schütz (Astrid Schütz); Matthias Seifert (Matthias Seifert); A. T. Sevincer (A. T. Sevincer); Garrick T. Sherman (Garrick T. Sherman); Otto Simonsson (Otto Simonsson); Ming-Chien Sung (Ming-Chien Sung); Chung-Ching Tai (Chung-Ching Tai); Thomas Talhelm (Thomas Talhelm); Bethany A. Teachman (Bethany A. Teachman); Philip E. Tetlock (Philip E. Tetlock); Dimitrios Thomakos (Dimitrios Thomakos); Dwight C. K. Tse (Dwight C. K. Tse); Oliver J. Twardus (Oliver J. Twardus); Joshua M. Tybur (Joshua M. Tybur); Lyle Ungar (Lyle Ungar); Daan Vandermeulen (Daan Vandermeulen); Leighton Vaughan Williams (Leighton Vaughan Williams); Hrag A. Vosgerichian (Hrag A. Vosgerichian); Qi Wang (Qi Wang); Ke Wang (Ke Wang); Mark E. Whiting (Mark E. Whiting); Conny E. Wollbrant (Conny E. Wollbrant); Tao Yang (Tao Yang); Kumar Yogeeswaran (Kumar Yogeeswaran); Sangsuk Yoon (Sangsuk Yoon); Ventura R. Alves (Ventura R. Alves); Jessica R. Andrews-Hanna (Jessica R. Andrews-Hanna); Paul A. Bloom (Paul A. Bloom); Anthony Boyles (Anthony Boyles); Loo Charis (Loo Charis); Mingyeong Choi (Mingyeong Choi); Sean Darling-Hammond (Sean Darling-Hammond); Z. E. Ferguson (Z. E. Ferguson); Cheryl R. Kaiser (Cheryl R. Kaiser); Simon T. Karg (Simon T. Karg); Alberto López Ortega (Alberto López Ortega); Lori Mahoney (Lori Mahoney); Melvin S. Marsh (Melvin S. Marsh); Marcellin F. R. C. Martinie (Marcellin F. R. C. Martinie); Eli K. Michaels (Eli K. Michaels); Philip Millroth (Philip Millroth); Jeanean B. Naqvi (Jeanean B. Naqvi); Weiting Ng (Weiting Ng); Robb B. Rutledge (Robb B. Rutledge); Peter Slattery (Peter Slattery); Adam H. Smiley (Adam H. Smiley); Oliver Strijbis (Oliver Strijbis); Daniel Sznycer (Daniel Sznycer); Eli Tsukayama (Eli Tsukayama); Austin van Loon (Austin van Loon); Jan G. Voelkel (Jan G. Voelkel); Margaux N. A. Wienk (Margaux N. A. Wienk); Tom Wilkening (Tom Wilkening); et al.
Journal Title
Nature Human Behaviour
Year (definitive publication)
2023
Language
English
Country
United Kingdom
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Abstract
How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender–career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists’ forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data.
Acknowledgements
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Keywords
Forecasting,Expert judgment,Well-being,Political polarization,Prejudice,Meta-science
  • Psychology - Social Sciences

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