We present an original meta-probit analysis for the effect of the Bank of Japan monetary policy on economic growth for the period 2001-2020, using 45 studies. We use impulse response functions in VAR type models to assess if the effects on output of unconventional monetary policies are significant (positive or negative) or not. Funnel asymmetry and precision effect tests do not provide a striking evidence of publication bias. Additionally, we do not find a consensus regarding the output growth effects during the quantitative easing years. Besides variables linked with the studies’ methodological features, other variables such as industrial production and the price level have a greater effect on the probability of reporting statistically significant (positive) effects of quantitative easing on output growth. However, one of the most important (policy) implications of our study is that the evidence for a significant real effect of unconventional monetary policy is weak.

The authors would like to thank participants at the 25th Annual Conference of the Computing in Economics and Finance Society and the 50th Annual Conference of the Money, Macro, and Finance Society, seven referees, the associate editor and managing editor.

Quantitative easing,Bank of Japan,Monetary policy,Economic growth,Meta-probit

• Economia e Gestão - Ciências Sociais