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The New Keynesian Model: An Empirical Application to the Euro Area Economy
Document Title
Dinâmia’CET-IUL Working Paper Nº 2013/01
Year (definitive publication)
2013
Language
English
Country
Portugal
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Abstract
This paper empirically applies the New Keynesian Model to the euro area’s economy during the
period from the first quarter of 1999 to the last quarter of 2008, which is consistent with the
scant empirical evidence on this Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model. Specifically,
we proceed with an econometric estimation of the IS Curve, the Phillips Curve and the Taylor
Rule to assess the ability of these three equations to describe the dynamics of aggregate demand
and the inflation rate in the euro area, as well as monetary policy steering by the European
Central Bank during its first 10 years. The New Keynesian Model is estimated using the
Generalized Method of Moments, since the three equations denote hybrid features including
backward and forward looking behaviours by economic agents and elements with rational
expectations. Although this method of estimation may present some limitations, the New
Keynesian Model seems to describe reasonably well the evolution of economic activity, the
inflation rate and monetary policy in the euro area. Against this backdrop, the New Keynesian
Model may provide an important tool for aiding the governments of euro area countries and the
European Central Bank in the adoption and implementation of its policies over time.
Acknowledgements
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Keywords
New Keynesian Model,IS Curve,Phillips Curve,Taylor Rule,Generalized Method of Moments,Euro Area.
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