Using cutting-edge methodology and, when required, developing new methods, this project aims to improve the skills of those involved in longitudinal research, in particular methodologists and researchers in the social sciences. The proposed work addresses both important methodological questions and substantive issues. In particular, data from the Consortium of Household panels for European socio-economic Research (CHER) will be used to illustrate methodological challenges when modelling socio-economic change. Using exemplars from the substantive research this project will present strategies for choosing the most appropriate statistical methods for analysing data with a longitudinal structure, taking into account measurement errors and complex survey designs.Survey data is the main source of information when regarding demographic and social characteristics of the population, economic activity, lifestyle patterns, and public opinion. Longitudinal survey data allow for the periodic measurement of individual’s demographic and socio-economic changes in their conditions. In panel studies the same and (or) different variables are measured on the same units at least at two time points. Panel data is particularly adequate for investigating changes at the individual level. Longitudinal studies also allow us to distinguish the degree of variation in the response variable across time for one person from the variation among subjects and, in principle, also to make stronger causal interpretations mainly regarding inferences about changes, by determining the direction and magnitude of causal relationships. Furthermore, panel data is capable, for example, of providing measures before and after important social and economic policy events. Several statistical approaches have been used to analyse and model panel survey data. These include random effects models, transition models (as is the case of graphical chain models), structural equation models and latent curve growth models. Longitudinal survey data analysis is currently an area of on-going research, with methodologists and expert statisticians from different backgrounds working on the convergence of methods for the analysis and statistical modelling of panel data. Indeed, methodological options are determinant for a correct understanding of the substantive problems, namely socio-economic changes.Building on previous work by research team members and consultants, the current research project has the following three main research topics: the use of graphical chain models to model socio-economic change; the properties and asymptotic distributions of edge exclusion tests in graphical chain models; the relationship between socio-economic change and several possible covariates included in the Portuguese Household Panel Survey; cross-national comparisons to investigate the causes and consequences of change on perceptions of socio-economic transitions; comparison of structural equation modelling techniques, latent growth curve models and random effects models in the longitudinal survey data context; investigation of variance effects of clustering for longitudinal studies included in the CHER data. Extensive evaluation of complex sampling methodology adopted by two specialised structural equation modelling software.

To address these three research topics, the current research project involves three main tasks, namely:  

Task 1: Graphical chain models in longitudinal survey data analysis;

Task 2: Model perceptions of socio-economic change using alternative statistical methodologies;

Task 3: Longitudinal complex survey data analysis and modelling. The outputs of the research conducted during the project will give rise to a number of publications, conference presentations, master thesis, seminars and short courses, aimed at a broad range of both academic and non-academic users.

To investigate the association/relationship between socio-economic change and several possible covariates included in the Portuguese Household Panel Survey (Inquérito às Famílias), namely, gender, education, age, wages and other income sources, marital status, health status, family size and social relations. To examine causes and consequences of change on perceptions of socio-economic transitions.

To improve the skills of those involved in longitudinal research, in particular methodologists and researchers in social sciences using survey sample panel data, by providing illustrative strategies for choosing the most appropriate statistical methods for analysing and modelling these data.To disseminate the results via national and international conference papers, journal articles and a book on methodological challenges. To organize a workshop and a short course to train social science researchers in statistical analysis of longitudinal data, using project outputs as didactic exemplars.

To stimulate and continue research activity on statistical modelling, both in terms of new theoretical developments and of applications in the social sciences. In particular, regarding analysing and modelling longitudinal survey data.To contribute to a deeper understanding of the challenges associated with modelling longitudinal survey data,To draw the attention of all those involved in longitudinal data research (academics and non-academics) to the impact of using appropriate statistical methodology on the reliability of substantive results and conclusions. To give young researchers training and the opportunity to participate in a research project. 

Research findings will be presented by research team members in 5 national and 5 international meetings / conferences. In total 10 papers are expected to be published: 5 in national and 5 in international scientific journals. During the last year of the project a book will be written on statistical methodological challenges faced when analysing and modelling longitudinal survey sample data. A seminar / workshop and a short course on longitudinal survey sample data modeling will also be organised, aiming at a broad range of both academics and non-academics, interested in these topics. A website will be created containg updates on the main findings of the project, includind downloadable versions of the working papers, once they are ready for Journal submission.

The project aims at improving the skills of those involved in longitudinal research, in particular methodologists and researchers in social sciences using survey sample panel data. Besides contributing to a deeper understanding of the topic by the research team members, it is also expected that new junior researchers get involved in the field. This applies directly for the three students that are expected to accomplish their master thesis, and indirectly to all those that in the future might come across any of the outputs of this research pro

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