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Publication Detailed Description
Leader-follower dynamics in real historical time: A Markovian test of non-linear causality between sail and steam (co-)developmentt
Journal Title
Applied Economics
Year (definitive publication)
2023
Language
English
Country
United Kingdom
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Abstract
The most dramatic changes in modern shipping occurred with the application of new industrial-age technologies to oceanic transportation. In metal-hulled and engine-powered trading platforms, industrial-age steamers (especially tramps and liners) lead to marked increases in the average tonnage of a typical vessel crossing the seas of an expanding global economy. Some of the most important developments had to do with the substitution of traditional wind-driven ships by successive cohorts of vessels exploiting the comparative advantages of mechanization. In this paper, we deploy a set of both established and less-orthodox quantitative approaches to historical commercial shipping time-series so as to model the (complex) relationship between steam and sail performance. We find that, indeed, there is evidence of leader-follower dynamics during the later part of 19th century. This process of ‘creative destruction’ was non-linea
Acknowledgements
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Keywords
Economic history,Technological competition,Sailing ships,Steamships,Vector autoregression,Multivariate Markov chains
Fields of Science and Technology Classification
- Economics and Business - Social Sciences
Funding Records
| Funding Reference | Funding Entity |
|---|---|
| PTDC/EGE-ECO/30690/2017 | Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia |
| UIDB/04152/2020 | Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia |
| UIDB/00315/2020 | Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia |
| UIDB/05069/2020 | Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia |
| UID/GES/00315/2013 | Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia |
Contributions to the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations
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